ATTENTION BOBBY BRYDE, I have a (NHL) Hockey Tout question for you...

[GottaWinToday]

I noticed you are very HARD on UPSTART TOUT POSTERS who come in here and tout a LOCK at say some team at ML (-280) or some team at +1/2 (-180).......

I thought you were being very unfair to those picks until I remembered my coaching days of seventh grade boys basketball...

I remember a kid doing it all wrong making a lay-up. The kid said "I made the basket, what's wrong"? I think that's where you are coming from Bobby. It doesn't matter if you made the basket, it matters IN THE LONG RUN to make the basket the right way. (OR MAKE THE RIGHT BET, WIN OR LOSE.)

OK, Bobby, here is the question. I have a very good handicapper in NHL Hockey. He has picks of a FLAT nature. Sides ML, sides Point Line, Over, Under, AND PARLAYS.........

He has only had two parlays during the first eight weeks of the hockey season....

The question is.......

What do you think of this bet??????

____________________________________
Date 11-23-02

Parlay
Washington - 1/2 (-200)
oTTAWA - 1/2 (-210)
Payoff=+121
____________________________________

Incidently, the bet was a winner, but we both know that that does not matter....

Washington was a Lock, but at -1/2 (-200)
Ottawa was a Lock, but at -1/2 (-210)

Is TWO LOCKS together, risking only one unit to win a Plus +121 unit a good bet?????????

Your answer, if forthcoming, will be at least interesting, and at most, very informative....


GottaWinToday......

PS. I'm very serious about this question....as I was somewhat scared to make the bet, but I did.......

/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

[This message was edited by GottaWinToday on 12-03-02 at 03:29 AM.]

 

[Hacker]

I'm very interested to see this answer myself. /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

 

[PO69]

Well first of all "parley" is parlay. Now maybe I have not been around here as long as Bobby, but a lot of people around here know that I know my stuff when it comes to hockey judging from my 36-9 posting record I believe. I havent been this shit for 20 for nothing. And NO, I did not take any big favorites such as that.

But lets look at your bet above, you say that your bet pays 1.21 to one. Well most people dont think of it this way, but this would have been my advice had you not had the line listed below.

Lets say that you bet $1000 2 team parlay with those odds. Well without calculating, I will assume that this would pay $1210. But what about betting the 2 games straight at $500 each?? You would still win a decent amount of money without a whole lot of risk.

But my main question came when I saw your line listed above. I immediately thought, Why would you not take the teams at -1.5 goals? Washington was +115 at -1.5 goals! And ottawa was like +110 at -1.5. I would recommend never taking a team at over -180 in hockey, because of the tie situation. Now baseball is a different story with the high moneyline, but not hockey. There are too many damn ties in this sport to take that kind of risk. I would have just lowered your bet to about 1/2 and then playing your parlay. Would have paid about 3.3 to one I believe. Now that is worth the shot if the bet looks great like he said. If it is a LOCK OF THE YEAR, then certainly he doesnt think that the team will win by just 1 goal.

Just my 2 cents

 

playersonly69

[This message was edited by CrAzY Jivin' IvaN on 12-03-02 at 03:44 AM.]

 

[PO69]

WRONG AGAIN

[This message was edited by playersonly69 on 12-03-02 at 03:46 AM.]

 

[GottaWinToday]

Thanks for the parley to parlay correction...


GottaWinToday /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

 

First, let’s look at it from a handicapping perspective.

We know that over the last six years teams that are -.5-$2.00 are 117-69, or 63 percent. That is a bit short of the break even 67 percent for -$2.00 favorites. We also know that Ottawa was 6-5 when -.5-$2.00; Washington 10-04 at -.5-$2.00 during that span. That’s 64 percent, also short of the 67 percent needs to break even. Last year Ottawa home was 21-20 ATS (-$655 based on $100 wagers, and Washington was 22-19 ATS -$55 based on $100 wagers). We know that Columbus had covered 2/3 prior meetings w/Ottawa; Atlanta covered 5/12 meetings w/Washington. Based on this, I’d say neither looked strong laying -.5-$2.00. If I remember correctly I laid -1.5+$1.10 with Ottawa that night, so your handicapper and myself must have seen the same thing as far as the game went. I think we can accept the fact that neither play bet separately at -.5-$2.00 looked very tempting.

Let’s move past the handicapping and on to the mathematics.

We know that at +$1.21 (the payout received from the original parlay) you need to hit 45.25 percent of your wagers to break even. Since -$2.00 favorites win only 63 percent of the time, one would need +$1.40 return on the parlay to break even, and the +$1.21 falls short.

If he insisted on betting two -.5 goal favorites, to break even he would have to find both favorites at -$1.80.

Now, if someone really liked two favorites and wanted to parlay them, one would be better off laying the -1.5 goals with the plus money. For instance, -1.5+$1.10 to -1.5+$1.20. In last six years teams are 258-293 when laying -1.5 (47 percent). Parlaying a +$1.10 team with a +$1.20 team should return $462 (winning +$362). On wagers which win +3.62 units, one would have to cash 21.65 percent of tickets to break even, which happens to be the correct number when parlaying those prices.

So let’s just say it wasn’t a parlay I would make - or recommend.

bb

 

[GottaWinToday]

Thanks BB for your response. You really have the numbers........



GottaWinToday /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

 

well, it only took me an hour.
then had a buddy proof it just in case.
try to make the next question bit easier for me!!

bb

 

[GottaWinToday]

BB

The reason I asked the question is that I think you are in the same (handicapper catagory) as my Hockey Guru.......

My Hockey Guru usually has a + moneyline. A - moneyline is very bad for him, like you, I think.....

Thanks for the effort........I do appreciate the response.......



GottaWinToday /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif